Closely investigate the
climate change and its impacts on crops are vital to identify the adaptation strategies.
Crop simulation modeless often uses to simulate the
impacts of climate change on crop production, hence Monica crop simulation
modeling was used here to assess the impacts of climate change and identify the
adaptation options for each grid pixels. Moreover the model was calibrated
before we use it for the impact assessment with the observed experimental data
of two sorghum cultivars namely Meko and Tehsale. And we have found that the model
has well captured both cultivars during the calibration process.The objective
of this paper was to assess the regional impacts
of climate on sorghum production and identify
the adaptation options to reverse the impact on production in Ethiopia. Identification
of arable lands for sorghum with annual crops was done for the whole country,
followed by coupling the daily weather data with gridded soil profile data
which is necessary the Monica model simulation procedure. The impact on sorghum
yields as well as effect of adaptation strategies was
calculated for thee climatological periods which are
baseline (1971-2000), near-term (2011-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and end-term
(2070-2099). Results showed that there would negative
climate change impacts on sorghum production in Ethiopia except for two regions
namely Amhara and Tigray areas. For instance the simulations run without
adaptation strategies for the 2011–2040 (refereed
to us near term impact) period showed reductions of 50 % in total sorghum production under representative
concentration pathways (rcp8.5) for both sorghum cultivars under consideration
(meko and teshale). When using adaptation strategies;
cultivar (meko and teshale), best planting date
and targeted fertilizer application rate; total production increased by 50-100
%. This analysis showed that the suggested
adaptation strategy is feasible adaptation options to mitigate negative effects
of climate scenarios.




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