In contrary to previous research
of refugee shocks, the analysis of Brojas & Monras (2016, p. 6) “derives a
single empirical approach based on the implications of factor demand theory”.
They underline, that with this methodological approach the consequences of any
refugee supply shock can be measured.

“The theoretical
derivation indicates exactly the type of correlation between labor market
outcomes and the number of refugees that should be estimated in any specific
context. And it also delineates precisely the conditions under which that
observed correlation can be interpreted as measuring a causal impact of the
refugee-induced increase in the supply of labor.” (Brojas & Monras, 2016,
p. 6)

Brojas & Monras (2016, p. 6)
also add, that their “analysis plays close attention to isolating the
particular groups that are most likely to be affected by refugee supply shocks”
and it can “examine the impact of the supply shocks on potentially
complementary native groups”. Finally, Brojas & Monras (2016) conclude with
the following findings:

“The empirical
analysis reported below uses the theory-derived empirical specification to
estimate the impact of the Marielitos, of the French repatriates and Algerian
nationals moving to France, of the flow of Soviet émigrés into Israel, and of
the refugees from the Yugoslav wars into several European countries. Despite
the obvious differences in the historical events that we examine, in the skill
composition of the refugees, and in the countries and localities affected by
the shocks, the use of a unified empirical framework to study each of the episodes
reveals a common thread: Exogenous refugee supply shocks have an adverse effect
on the labor market opportunities of competing natives in the destination
countries. Depending on the episode and the data, we document that the shock
sometimes reduces the wage of competing workers; sometimes it reduces their
employment rates; and sometimes it reduces both. At the same time, however, the
empirical analysis also reveals that exogenous supply shocks often have a
beneficial impact on the employment opportunities of complementary native
workers. In short, refugee supply shocks have sizable distributional
consequences in the labor markets of receiving countries.” (Brojas &
Monras, 2016, p. 6).




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